Legislature focuses on training, deterrence to fight crime - By Morgan Lee Associated Press
New Mexico state legislators have bundled together initiatives aimed at reducing violent crime and improving policing with an emphasis on police hiring, training and the tracking of excessive force incidents. The move came amid calls from Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham for a crackdown on urban crime and violence.
A Senate panel on criminal justice continued to refine the bulging crime package on Tuesday with time running out on a 30-day legislative session that ends Thursday at 12 p.m.
The centerpiece bill would expand the ranks of state district judges, boost retention pay for municipal police and sheriff's deputies and bestow million-dollar death benefits for relatives of police killed in the line of duty — four times the current amount.
Supporters have said the bill would ensure robust training at New Mexico's Law Enforcement Academy to help officers cope better with stress, interactions with the homeless, techniques for de-escalating violence and modern-day racial sensitivities.
That would come hand-in-hand with new accountability measures, as authorities compile a database of excessive force incidents involving police and related sanctions including firings and de-certifications.
The legislative package was assembled amid tough-on-crime proposals from the governor including enhanced penalties for some violence offenses and a prohibition on pretrial release for charges of severe violent or sexual crimes.
Many legislators in the Democratic majority so far have shunned the proposal to strictly limit pretrial release, instead focusing on ways to improve monitoring of defendants through ankle-bracelet locators. And some enhanced penalties appear to have fallen by the wayside — including stiffer sentences for second-degree murder.
Another component of the law would expand a gun violence reduction program, pioneered in Albuquerque, that focuses on deterrence measures for people likely to fall into cycles of violence.
Democratic Democratic Sens. Joseph Cervantes of Las Cruces, Natalie Figueroa of Albuquerque and Meredith Dixon of Albuquerque are sponsoring the legislation.
The legislation sets out requirements for crime reduction grants that pursue alternatives to traditional prosecution and incarceration, with requirements for regular performance reviews.
Navajo Nation sues New Mexico county over redistricting map - Associated Press
The Navajo Nation is suing San Juan County over a recently adopted map that will determine political boundaries for the northwestern New Mexico county through 2030.
The tribal government, its human rights commission and five tribal members claim that the five-member county commission violated the Voting Rights Act by approving a map that packs Native American voters into a single district.
The lawsuit filed last week states that the map approved by the commission in December deprives Native American voters of an "equal opportunity" to elect candidates of their choice in four districts despite them constituting almost 40% of the county's total population.
The complaint filed in federal court also states that action by the commission adds to the history of racism and voter suppression that members of the Navajo Nation have faced in the county and in municipalities.
Leonard Gorman, executive director of the human rights commission office, said in a statement that the map selected by county commissioners disenfranchises Navajo voters.
County spokesperson Devin Neeley declined to comment on the pending litigation.
County commissioners were presented with three maps in November featuring redrawn commission district boundaries, the Farmington Daily Times reported.
The Navajo Nation Human Rights Commission presented a fourth map that evenly distributed the Native American population across two districts. A fifth map presented by county staff and an outside firm contracted by the county was based on comments collected during a public hearing.
The complaint states that commissioners voted 4-1 in December to adopt the map that placed a high density of Native American voters into the southwestern portion of the county.
Gorman said the Navajo Nation's priority is to maintain compliance with the Voting Rights Act and that the San Juan County Commission must respect the principals of redistricting when it comes to majority-minority districts.
The plaintiffs are asking the court to block the county from using the map in upcoming elections and order the commission to develop a new map.
Lawmakers approve $10K raises for many New Mexico teachers - By Cedar Attanasio Associated Press / Report For America
A measure that will increase minimum salaries for New Mexico teachers and counselors by as much as 22% cleared its final legislative hurdle late Monday with a unanimous vote in the House.
The bill, approved by the Senate last week, now heads to Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. She is expected to sign it and has been touting it the largest increase in pay for New Mexico teachers in years.
Teachers and counselors in New Mexico are currently paid a minimum salary for nine-month contracts based on three tiers that factor in experience and continuing education: $40,000 for tier one, $50,000 for tier two and $60,000 for tier three.
The legislation would fund school districts to raise each of those salary tiers by $10,000, starting in July.
Many New Mexico schools pay minimum or near-minimum salaries, particularly in rural areas where the cost of living is low. Starting teachers in those areas can expect the highest increase in pay, around 22%.
The minimums wouldn't help Indigenous language teachers who are paid as teaching assistants.
Lawmakers are considering raises for other school workers in the final days of the session, which ends Thursday. Those proposals include a 7% wage increase for all school workers.
Prosecutors: 'Hard to imagine a person more dangerous' - By Susan Montoya Bryan Associated Press
Prosecutors are seeking to keep in custody a homeless man suspected of stabbing 11 people in a matter of hours as he rode a bicycle around Albuquerque on Sunday, saying no conditions of release could reasonably ensure the safety of the community.
Tobias Gutierrez, who has a lengthy criminal history, appeared in court virtually Tuesday on charges of aggravated battery with a deadly weapon.
A public safety assessment tool used by judges in New Mexico's largest city to determine whether a defendant can be released pending trial under certain conditions recommends that Gutierrez be released based on factors that include his age, previous history and the current charges.
Prosecutors argued otherwise in a pretrial detention motion.
"It is hard to imagine a person more dangerous that hurt more people than the defendant," the motion states. "With so many victims and with no clear motive or reason, it is clear that the defendant is an extremely violent and dangerous person. The only way to protect our community is to hold the defendant in custody until this matter is resolved at trial."
A state district judge will consider the motion at an upcoming hearing.
While Gutierrez was represented Tuesday by a public defender, an attorney who could speak on his behalf has yet to be appointed.
The case comes as legislative efforts to overhaul the state's troubled pretrial release program have all but stalled despite strong momentum for change in January when the session began. That was fueled partly by Albuquerque marking a year of record homicides and growing frustration among families who had lost loved ones to violent crime.
Lauren Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for District Attorney Raúl Torrez, said the Gutierrez case marks the second time in a week that the court's public safety assessment framework has recommended release for what prosecutors consider a dangerous person.
"Apparently even facing charges of stabbing 11 different people in broad daylight isn't enough to keep someone behind bars using this instrument," she said. "Unfortunately, while 77% of the public wants the revolving door shut on these types of violent offenders, the Legislature has once again failed to address the issue or even acknowledge the problem."
Despite the recommendations of the assessment, she said she was hopeful judges would use their discretion when considering detention motions.
Sunday's stabbings appeared to have been committed at random within hours along Central Avenue, one of the city's main thoroughfares. One of the crime scenes included a homeless encampment and another was near a smoke shop where the suspect asked a victim for money and yelled obscenities before swinging a knife, according to a criminal complaint.
The witnesses identified a man on a bike armed with a large knife. Some described the man as acting strangely and said he appeared to be upset.
New Mexico court records show Gutierrez's criminal history included felony offenses that ranged from burglary to battery, possession of a controlled substance and driving while intoxicated. In 2014, he was sentenced to federal prison after trying to take a revolver and ammunition into a tribal casino and prompting a police pursuit.
Judge told release of insurance info OK in clergy abuse case - Associated Press
A federal judge has been told that Archdiocese of Santa Fe records that would indicate how much insurance money is available to help pay a settlement of clergy sex abuse claims can be made public if they are redacted to withhold victims' identities.
The archdiocese previously asked Judge David T. Thuma to seal the records, saying that releasing them could breach the terms of its insurance agreements and make them unenforceable.
However, lawyers for four insurers said during a U.S. Bankruptcy Court hearing Monday that they didn't object to release of the records if information identifying victims is redacted, the Albuquerque Journal reported.
Archdiocese attorney Thomas Walker also said Monday that the records could be released with redactions, the Santa Fe New Mexican reported.
"We appreciate that keeping things secret is not desirable," Walker said.
Lawyers for abuse survivors who filed claims in the bankruptcy case had argued there were no valid legal reasons for sealing the documents.
Victims' attorneys have reached a tentative settlement as to the total archdiocese contribution but the amount has not been made public.
Alec Baldwin sued by family of cinematographer killed on set - By Andrew Dalton AP Entertainment Writer
The family of a cinematographer shot and killed on the set of the film "Rust" sued Alec Baldwin and the movie's producers Tuesday alleging their "callous" disregard in the face of safety complaints led directly to her death.
At a news conference announcing the lawsuit, attorneys for the husband and 9-year-old son of Halyna Hutchins said that Baldwin refused training for the type of "cross-draw" he was performing when he fired the shot that killed her.
Baldwin's attorney responded that any claim the actor was reckless is "entirely false."
The suit filed in New Mexico's Santa Fe County in the name of Matthew and Andros Hutchins shows a text message exchange between a camera operator and a producer in which a complaint over gun safety was met with what the suit calls "callous sarcasm."
The operator, Lane Luper, texted unit production manager Katherine Walters saying: "We've now had 3 accidental discharges. This is super unsafe."
Walters responds: "Accidental discharge on the firearm? Awesome. Sounds good."
At least four other lawsuits have been filed over the shooting, but this is the first directly tied to one of the two people shot.
The defendants' "reckless conduct and cost-cutting measures led to the death of Halyna Hutchins," attorney Brian Panish said.
Had proper protocols been followed, the suit says, "Halyna Hutchins would be alive and well, hugging her husband and 9-year-old son. "
Baldwin, who was also a producer on the film, was pointing a gun at Hutchins inside a small church during the setup for the filming of a scene for the Western in New Mexico on Oct. 21 when it went off, killing Hutchins and wounding the director, Joel Souza. The attorneys showed an animated recreation of the shooting at the news conference.
Baldwin has said he was pointing the gun at Hutchins at her instruction and it went off without him pulling the trigger.
The suit says industry standards call for using a rubber or similar prop gun during the setup, and there was no call for a real gun.
It also says that both Baldwin and assistant director David Halls, who handed him the gun, should have checked the revolver for live bullets.
The suit also names as defendants Halls, Walters, the film's armorer Hannah Guttierez Reed, and ammunition supplier Seth Kenney.
"Any claim that Alec was reckless is entirely false," Aaron Dyer, attorney for Baldwin and other producers, said in a statement Tuesday. "He, Halyna and the rest of the crew relied on the statement by the two professionals responsible for checking the gun that it was a 'cold gun' – meaning there is no possibility of a discharge."
He added that "actors should be able to rely on armorers and prop department professionals, as well as assistant directors, rather than deciding on their own when a gun is safe to use."
Last month Baldwin turned over his cellphone to investigators, and Dyer said he continues to cooperate fully with the investigation.
Authorities have described "some complacency" in how weapons were handled on the "Rust" set. They have said it is too soon to determine whether charges will be filed.
Baldwin said he does not believe he will be criminally charged in the shooting.
Several crew members have filed lawsuits, including Gutierrez Reed, who blamed Kenney for the shooting.
In an interview with ABC, Baldwin said Hutchins had asked him to point the gun just off camera and toward her armpit before it went off.
"I didn't pull the trigger," Baldwin said. "I would never point a gun at anyone and pull the trigger at them. Never."
Panish said Tuesday that the assertion was unrealistic.
"I think it's clear what happened," he said. "Alec had the gun in his hand, he shot it, Halyna was killed."
The complaint does not cite a dollar amount, but Panish said it would be considerable.
"A longtime marriage, a soulmate is lost, and a boy to be raised without a mother at a young age is a tremendous loss," he said. "And anyone who's even been close to that experience knows, that that goes on forever and ever and ever."
The plaintiffs' attorney in New Mexico, Randi McGinn, said the lawsuit is likely to move much more quickly than if it were filed in California, as others have been.
"In New Mexico, we're used to people coming in from out of town to play cowboy, who don't know how to use guns," McGinn said.
Hutchins, 42, grew up on a remote Soviet military base and worked on documentary films in Eastern Europe before studying film in Los Angeles and embarking on a promising movie-making career.
On her Instagram page, Hutchins identified herself as a "restless dreamer" and "adrenaline junkie."
In 2019, American Cinematographer called her "one of the year's rising stars."
Dyer's statement said: "Everyone's hearts and thoughts remain with Halyna's family as they continue to process this unspeakable tragedy."
State Police: Shooting leaves suspect dead, deputies unhurt - Associated Press
Authorities say a suspect is dead after being shot during an encounter with at least one Torrance County sheriff's deputy.
The New Mexico State Police is investigating the incident that occurred Monday night in a rural area pf Edgewood south of Interstate 40 and said no deputies were injured.
No identities or additional information of circumstances of the incident was released.
Edgewood is 26 miles east of Albuquerque.
New Mexico legislature seeks spending boost, tax cuts - By Morgan Lee Associated Press
Proposals to increase state spending and slash taxes moved closer to reality with crucial floor votes Monday in the New Mexico House and Senate, as lawmakers set priorities for an unprecedented deluge of state government income.
The state Senate voted 37-3 to endorse a $8.48 billion general fund spending plan for the fiscal year starting on July 1 — a 14% increase over current-year spending.
Senate additions to the spending plan worth $150 million still require House approval or negotiation if disagreements persist. Those changes boost spending on violence intervention programs, grants to underwrite business expansions, anti-hunger programs and more.
"We have an opportunity in New Mexico like we've never seen," said lead Senate budget negotiator George Munoz of Gallup.
The state is flush with cash linked to surging oil production and prices, and a windfall in federal pandemic relief, with no immediate end in sight. Revenues for the coming fiscal year are expected to exceed current annual spending obligations by $1.6 billion.
House legislators voted 59-9 in favor of a Democrat-sponsored tax relief package worth $385 million in its first year. Senate lawmakers are advancing their own tax-cut proposal with many similarities.
The House proposal would eliminate taxes on Social Security income for middle-income earners, provide parents with an annual credit or rebate of up to $175 per child, give a $1,000 credit to full-time local hospital nurses and slightly reduce the rate of the state gross receipts tax on retail sales and business services.
Other minor provisions would eliminate taxes on feminine hygiene products and incentivize the installation of home solar panels.
Democratic Rep. Christine Chandler of Los Alamos emphasized that the child-tax credit and reduction in sales taxes apply to everyone and are not based on income levels. Social Security income still would be taxed for individuals earning over $100,000, and joint tax filers earning over $150,000.
Republican legislators called the tax relief bill a missed opportunity to provide even greater tax breaks of about $800 million, while forgoing Democratic-sponsored incentives for hydrogen fuel production, loans to local venture capital firms, a new state government building and wastewater facilities for the Santa Fe Opera.
"Tax reform is always next year (because) we don't have enough money," said GOP state Rep. Larry Scott of Hobbs, urging a complete end to taxes on Social Security income. "This year we do have enough money."
Also Monday, the Senate gave its approval to help state prosecutors track and investigate unresolved reports of missing Indigenous people from New Mexico.
The 34-0 vote of the Senate sent the bill to the state House for consideration. The initiative would create an electronic catalogue of missing Indigenous people — including many who may have been murdered — for use by law enforcement and state prosecutors with support from outside financial grants.
The bill also authorizes $1 million in spending by the state attorney general's office to hire and train at least one specialist for investigating cases of missing Native Americans.
Sen. Shannon Pinto, a tribal member of the Navajo Nation from Tohatchi, said the bill was inspired by haunting instances of unresolved disappearances.
She invoking the case of Anthonette Cayedito, who was last seen in April 1986 as a freckled 9-year-old at her family's home in Gallup.
"I hope there is some closure before I reach my time here on this earth," Pinto said.
Lawmakers are working around the clock in the last frantic days of a 30-day annual legislative session that ends at noon Thursday. Major initiatives are still being vetted on voting access, climate regulation and changes to the criminal justice system.
Also Monday, a Senate panel unanimously advanced a bill that would allow police to quickly obtain location data from criminal suspects wearing ankle monitors. Supporters say police currently have to obtain a warrant when they're after someone suspected of a new crime.
The bill would drop the warrant requirement for GPS data going back as much as one year, and only if a serious new crime such as murder or human trafficking of a child is suspected.
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* This version corrects that Social Security income still would be taxed for individuals earning over $100,000, not $75,000, and joint tax filers earning over $150,000, rather than $100,000.
New Mexico bill allows testing to prevent fentanyl deaths - By Morgan Lee Associated Press
New Mexico's Legislature passed a bill Monday to legalize test strips that can detect the presence of the potent opiate fentanyl and potentially help avoid deadly overdoses.
A 32-3 vote in the Senate sent the bill for final approval to Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who supports the initiative.
The bill from Democratic legislators in Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Los Alamos would lift restrictions on public access to devices that can test for drug impurities. It also gives state health health officials new authority to intervene and prevent the spread of diseases like HIV and hepatitis through intravenous drug use.
The bill was scheduled for a decisive Senate vote as soon as Monday that would send the measure to
Overdoses in New Mexico increasingly are linked to the ingestion of drugs laced with fentanyl.
"Starting in mid-2019, that red line for drug overdose deaths started to curve up from fentanyl ... one of the main drug adulterants," state Health and Human Services Secretary David Scrase testified at a legislative hearing in January. "We were completely incapable of intervening to stop those deaths because of legal restrictions."
States including Arizona already have decriminalized test strips designed to detect fentanyl.
New Mexico state Rep. Tara Lujan of Santa Fe hopes her bill will also spur new opportunities for health officials to interact with people harboring drug addictions and offer support services that may save lives.
New Mexico routinely leads the American West in rates of opioid-related drug overdose deaths. It also has been on the forefront of strategies to reduce the toll of drug use and addiction, from the distribution of overdose antidote drugs to legal immunity provisions for people who may implicate themselves in crimes by seeking overdose treatment for themselves or others.
Prominent New Mexico lawmaker apologizes for drunken driving - By Cedar Attanasio Associated Press / Report For America
Prominent Democratic state Rep. Georgene Louis of Albuquerque is apologizing after being arrested and charged with drunken driving.
Louis, an attorney and rising figure among Indigenous legislators, was arrested shortly after midnight on charges of aggravated drunken driving and driving without proof of registration and insurance, police said.
Santa Fe police spokesman Ben Valdez said that Louis was driving on a main street in the state capital city of Santa Fe when a police officer pulled her over for speeding late Sunday night.
A field sobriety test and breath test "supported the suspicion of impaired driving," Valdez wrote in an email.
"I am sorry and I deeply regret my lapse in judgment. I know I let so many people down. I am accepting responsibility for my mistake. I am prioritizing my health, and I will work hard to regain the trust of my constituents, my community and my family," Louis said in a statement shared by her attorney, Kitren Fischer.
The arrest took place during the frenetic final days of a 30-day annual legislative session.
A legislative committee chaired by Louis canceled a Monday morning hearing just hours after Louis was booked at a local jail.
Louis was the lead sponsor in 2021 of landmark legislation that ended immunity from prosecution for human rights violations by police and other local government officials under provisions of the state constitution.
Louis, a tribal member of Acoma Pueblo, campaign unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination to Congress in 2021 in a special election won by Democratic U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury of Albuquerque.
Police arrest man suspected of stabbing 11 in Albuquerque - By Susan Montoya Bryan Associated Press
Police in Albuquerque arrested a man suspected of stabbing 11 people as he rode a bicycle around the city over the weekend, leaving two victims critically injured, authorities said.
The suspect was identified as Tobias Gutierrez, a 42-year-old man with a criminal history that includes felony offenses that range from burglary to battery and possession of a controlled substance.
He was booked into jail on charges of aggravated battery with a deadly weapon, police in New Mexico's largest city said in a statement Monday. Booking documents said he was homeless.
The stabbings appeared to have been committed at random within hours along Central Avenue, one of the city's main thoroughfares. One of the crime scenes included a homeless encampment and another was near a smoke shop where the suspect asked a victim for money and yelled obscenities before swinging a knife, according to a criminal complaint.
"There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason" to the attacks, police spokesman Gilbert Gallegos said.
There was no immediate information on whether Gutierrez had a lawyer who could speak on his behalf.
New Mexico court records show Gutierrez also had been charged over the years with drug possession and driving while intoxicated.
In 2014, Gutierrez failed to appear in court for driving on a revoked license, records show. He responded to the court with a handwritten note saying that he was in federal custody in another county and that he was making an effort to better himself while incarcerated.
His federal prison sentence stemmed from a case in which he entered a tribal casino north of Albuquerque while carrying a revolver and ammunition.
Authorities said Gutierrez got into an altercation with a casino security officer, dropped the revolver, got into a vehicle and led police on a chase through a suburb until he crashed and was found hiding.
Records show he was released from federal custody in 2020.
Records also show that police were called to his mother's home twice last September for domestic altercations, including one in which he was accused of stabbing her husband. No charges were filed.
Sunday's attacks began around 11:15 a.m., when officers responded to a crime scene downtown and found a man suffering a laceration to his hand. About an hour later, another call came in about the stabbing outside a smoke shop near the University of New Mexico a couple miles away.
Police were called to two more stabbings along Central Avenue over the next two hours before another call came in at 2 p.m. about a man trying to stab people outside a convenience store. Arriving officers found two victims with neck wounds.
Within the next 20 minutes, two more calls came in — and the final one involved a victim stabbed outside of a restaurant along another busy street less than a mile away.
The witnesses identified a man on a bike armed with a large knife. Some described the man as acting strangely and said he appeared to be upset.
According to the criminal complaint, an officer saw a suspect who fit the description and saw him toss something into a trash can before the officer stopped the suspect. A search warrant was issued, and a knife was found.
The victims were taken to different hospitals. While two suffered critical injuries, all of those hospitalized were in stable condition, police said. Some were treated for their injuries and released.
US announces tribal lockup reforms after 16 deaths reviewed - Associated Press
The U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs on Monday announced a series of reforms for the tribal correctional facilities it oversees after reviewing the deaths of 16 inmates.
The agency did not make public the report of its review, making it difficult to gauge what led to the actions that it says will protect the rights, dignity and safety of tribal members taken into custody.
"The report is undergoing a review right now because it contains some protected personal information, but it's our goal to share what we can as soon as possible," Assistant Secretary for Indian Affairs Bryan Newland told reporters.
The review and reforms come after an NPR story last year on deaths in tribal jails. The Bureau of Indian Affairs directly operates about one-fourth of the 100 correctional facilities under its umbrella. Tribes operate the others under contract with the BIA.
At least 16 inmates died in those facilities from 2016 to 2020. A three-month BIA review of the deaths was launched last fall. It was done by The Cruzan Group, LLC. consulting firm, which includes the former director of the BIA'S Office of Justice Services Darren Cruzan, at a cost of nearly $83,000, according to online public records.
Newland said he's aware of the scrutiny surrounding the contract for Cruzan's group to investigate the workings of an agency he once led. As a political appointee, Newland said he wasn't involved in the process.
"But I do work to make sure our process is ethical and fair," Newland said. "I intend to make sure this contract was awarded in an ethical and fair manner and that it adheres to law and regulation."
Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, who sits on the Senate Indian Affairs Committee, said Monday he's reviewing the reforms to ensure the federal government upholds its responsibility to Indian Country under treaties and other acts.
"Sen. Tester is deeply concerned that a former official was hired to investigate conduct that occurred under his own watch and believes the BIA needs to act with complete transparency about the investigation and its findings," a spokeswoman for Tester, Sarah Feldman, said in a statement.
The review focused on the fairness and effectiveness of investigations of in-custody deaths, Newland said.
The more than two dozen reforms — some of which have been put in place already — include policy changes to enable investigators to respond more quickly to in-custody deaths and report about those investigations monthly to the Office of Justice Services. Other reforms focus on training, and working with other federal agencies to define the roles of investigators and on healthcare.
NPR reported on the Cruzan contract earlier this month and published its investigative story last June on deaths in tribal jails, though it put the number of deaths at 19 from 2016 and 2020.
The media outlet said poor staff training and neglect led to several inmates' deaths. NPR also found violations of federal policy that meant correctional staff didn't check on inmates in a timely manner, and about one-fifth of correctional officers hadn't completed required basic training.
Government watchdog groups, congressional testimony and other advocates have raised similar concerns for years.
While the Bureau of Indian Affairs didn't release the review report that led to the reforms, NPR obtained a copy.
The 127-page report found evidence of employee misconduct, falsified reports and shoddy investigations by the BIA and the FBI — two federal agencies that respond to crime on tribal land, NPR reported.
The review also found that some employees in tribal jails weren't properly trained and lacked supervision.
West megadrought worsens to driest in at least 1,200 years - By Seth Borenstein Ap Science Writer
The American West's megadrought deepened so much last year that it is now the driest in at least 1,200 years and is a worst-case climate change scenario playing out live, a new study finds.
A dramatic drying in 2021 — about as dry as 2002 and one of the driest years ever recorded for the region — pushed the 22-year drought past the previous record-holder for megadroughts in the late 1500s and shows no signs of easing in the near future, according to a study Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The study calculated that 42% of this megadrought can be attributed to human-caused climate change.
"Climate change is changing the baseline conditions toward a drier, gradually drier state in the West and that means the worst-case scenario keeps getting worse," said study lead author Park Williams, a climate hydrologist at UCLA. "This is right in line with what people were thinking of in the 1900s as a worst-case scenario. But today I think we need to be even preparing for conditions in the future that are far worse than this."
Williams studied soil moisture levels in the West — a box that includes California, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, most of Oregon and Idaho, much of New Mexico, western Colorado, northern Mexico, and the southwest corners of Montana and Texas — using modern measurements and tree rings for estimates that go back to the year 800. That's about as far back as estimates can reliably go with tree rings.
A few years ago, Williams studied the current drought and said it qualified as a lengthy and deep "megadrought" and that the only worse one was in the 1500s. He figured the current drought wouldn't surpass that one because megadroughts tended to peter out after 20 years. And, he said, 2019 was a wet year so it looked like the western drought might be coming to an end.
But the region dried up in late 2020 and 2021.
All of California was considered in official drought from mid-May until the end of 2021, and at least three-quarters of the state was at the highest two drought levels from June through Christmas, according to the U.S. drought monitor.
"For this drought to have just cranked up back to maximum drought intensity in late 2020 through 2021 is a quite emphatic statement by this 2000s drought saying that we're nowhere close to the end," Williams said. This drought is now 5% drier than the old record from the 1500s, he said.
The drought monitor says 55% of the U.S. West is in drought with 13% experiencing the two highest drought levels.
This megadrought really kicked off in 2002 — one of the driest years ever, based on humidity and tree rings, Williams said.
"I was wondering if we'd ever see a year like 2002 again in my life and in fact, we saw it 20 years later, within the same drought," Williams said. The drought levels in 2002 and 2021 were a statistical tie, though still behind 1580 for the worst single year.
Climate change from the burning of fossil fuels is bringing hotter temperatures and increasing evaporation in the air, scientists say.
Williams used 29 models to create a hypothetical world with no human-caused warming then compared it to what happened in real life — the scientifically accepted way to check if an extreme weather event is due to climate change. He found that 42% of the drought conditions are directly from human-caused warming. Without climate change, he said, the megadrought would have ended early on because 2005 and 2006 would have been wet enough to break it.
The study "is an important wake-up call," said Jonathan Overpeck, dean of environment at the University of Michigan, who wasn't part of the study. "Climate change is literally baking the water supply and forests of the Southwest, and it could get a whole lot worse if we don't halt climate change soon."
Williams said there is a direct link between drought and heat and the increased wildfires that have been devastating the West for years. Fires need dry fuel that drought and heat promote.
Eventually, this megadrought will end by sheer luck of a few good rainy years, Williams said. But then another one will start.
Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist who wasn't involved in the study, said climate change is likely to make megadrought "a permanent feature of the climate of the Colorado River watershed during the 21st century."