A New Mexico judge on Friday upheld the state’s congressional map as constitutional in a trial over whether the Democrats, who control the Legislature, illegally drew the boundaries in 2021 to guarantee their party’s victory.
State District Judge Fred Van Soelen found there was clear evidence that Democratic lawmakers intentionally tried to dilute Republican votes when they adjusted the boundaries of Congressional District 2.
He noted a large swing to the left in voter registration and the parties’ likely performance in the district and evidence that Democratic leaders moved far more voters than were necessary in and out of District 2 — notably removing GOP voters and adding Democrats. He also wrote that messages sent by lawmakers and legislative staff during the redistricting session about their desire for District 2 to lean Democratic, “was clear evidence of their intent to dilute the votes of the Plaintiffs as Republican voters in CD2 in southeastern New Mexico.”
However, he ruled that the success of those efforts, while “substantial,” did not “rise to the level of an egregious gerrymander.”
The 2nd Congressional District used to lean Republican, encompassing all of southern New Mexico, including the Southeast oilpatch and vast agricultural land. The map in question redrew it to exclude conservative areas of eastern New Mexico and add the heavily Democratic South Valley of Albuquerque.
The state Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that some partisan gerrymandering is acceptable. It’s when it’s “egregious” that it violates the state Constitution.
“Entrenchment is the touchstone of an egregious partisan gerrymander,” Van Soelen wrote in his decision. That is, the Democratic Party would have to have such a strong hold on the district that they would always win. If the map itself, rather than voters, determined the district’s election results, it would violate the Republican plaintiff’s constitutional rights to equal protection.
Legislative analysis based on past election results by Research and Polling Inc. shows Democrats would win 53% of likely votes in the district, and Republicans 47% The parties presented conflicting evidence at trial as to whether that means it’s no longer competitive.
Attorneys for the plaintiffs argued that is blue enough to make it exceedingly difficult for a GOP candidate to win in, “all but the most extremely pro-Republican conditions.” They argued balancing the districts so that all have a Democratic performance score above 53% amounted to a “near-perfect gerrymander.”
To argue their point, counsel for the Democratic defendants pointed to how close the District 2 race was in 2022, where Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez beat Republican incumbent Yvette Herrell by a mere 1,350 votes — or just 0.7%. They also cited a recent KOB-TV poll that shows Herrell with a slight edge in the candidates’ 2024 rematch.
Additionally, the defense called Research and Polling President Brian Sanderoff to the stand as an expert witness. He testified he considers a district with an even wider 54/46 percent split “competitive.”
Van Soelen based his ruling on the results of the 2022 election — the only time the map has been used.
“Given the variables that go into predicting future election outcomes, coupled with the competitive outcome of the only actual election held so far under the SB1 map, the Court finds that the Plaintiffs have not provided sufficient evidence that the Defendants were successful in their attempt to entrench their party in Congressional District 2,” Van Soelen wrote in his ruling.
The Republican Party of New Mexico, calling the ruling “shocking,” announced Friday they will appeal the decision to the state Supreme Court.
“The Republican Party of New Mexico believes the fight is too important to accept this setback without contest,” the party said in a statement.
Support for this coverage comes from the Thornburg Foundation and KUNM listeners.
