New Mexico revenue collections dip amid economic slowdown - Dan Boyd, Albuquerque Journal
New Mexico’s magical revenue ride is showing new signs of coming to a halt, which could force the state to dip deeper into its backup accounts.
A new legislative report shows state revenue collections were tracking $166.6 million below projections as of late last year, due largely to lower-than-expected personal and corporate income tax levels.
If the current revenue trend continues through the rest of the current budget year that ends in June, the state would take in nearly $380 million — or roughly 2.8% — less than in the previous fiscal year, according to a Legislative Finance Committee report.
That could force the state to dip deeper into its cash reserves to balance the budget. The state already drew down about $160 million from reserves to plug a budget gap at the end of the fiscal year last year, according to legislative analysts.
In addition, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham authorized nearly $257 million in spending via executive orders last year — mostly on natural disaster response and National Guard deployments — and has already authorized roughly $124 million in such emergency spending during the current budget year, according to legislative data.
“Continued revenue softness would require additional draws on the operating reserve, which is already under pressure,” the LFC revenue tracking report states.
New Mexico has seen an unprecedented revenue bonanza in recent years, with revenue levels increasing from $7.8 billion in 2019 to a projected $13.7 million as of this year, according to legislative data. Much of that revenue growth has been fueled by record-breaking oil production levels in southeast New Mexico’s Permian Basin.
The revenue surge has allowed state lawmakers to set aside large amounts of money in new trust funds, including an early childhood trust fund that is set to pay for Lujan Grisham’s universal child care initiative over the next five years.
However, the revenue growth has shown signs of cooling — and perhaps dissipating entirely — amid recent economic trends.
Specifically, a legislative economist said Monday that a slowing national and state economy is playing a role in the lower-than-expected corporate and personal income tax collections. A large part of the slowing economy is due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs that have led to many businesses having to absorb losses.
In addition, changes to the federal tax code signed into law by Trump last summer have also been a factor in New Mexico’s recent revenue slowdown.
During this year’s 30-day legislative session, lawmakers approved a tax package that, among other things, would decouple the state from some of the federal corporate income tax changes.
But that bill, Senate Bill 151, which had not yet been signed by the governor as of Monday, would only partially plug the revenue decline going forward, said LFC chief economist Ismael Torres.
Meanwhile, New Mexico could benefit financially from a global spike in oil prices due to the war in Iran. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached nearly $120 per barrel on Monday — its highest level since 2022.
New Mexico’s most recent revenue estimates project the price of oil to average $58 per barrel in the current budget year, meaning a prolonged increase in oil prices could lead to more revenue for the state than projected.
But elevated prices would likely have to remain in place for several months in order for oil companies to begin increasing drilling, legislative officials said Monday.
Sen. George Muñoz, D-Gallup, cited volatile oil prices and the lower-than-expected corporate income tax collections during last month’s Senate floor debate on a $11.1 billion budget bill.
But he also said the state’s prudent fiscal planning in recent years had rendered unnecessary steps like state government hiring freezes that have been, at times, implemented in the past.
“We must put New Mexico in a position to weather uncertainties, and this Legislature has done that over the last five years,” said Muñoz.
NM Department of Justice, police search former Zorro Ranch owned by Jeffrey Epstein - Joshua Bowling, Source New Mexico
The New Mexico Department of Justice announced that it searched convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s former Zorro Ranch on Monday along with officers from the New Mexico State Police and deputies from the Sandoval County Sheriff’s Office.
New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez’s NMDOJ in February announced a criminal investigation into on-site activities at the property prior to Epstein’s death in 2019. Former New Mexico Attorney General Hector Balderas at the time told Source NM that his office investigated Epstein’s and conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell’s actions at Zorro Ranch before federal officials asked him to shelve the query.
On Sunday, Women’s March organized a rally outside the ranch’s gates, “where Epstein trafficked girls for decades while the Federal Bureau of Investigation failed to act.” In a statement Monday, an NMDOJ spokesperson asked the public to stay away from the area and cease flying drones overhead “to avoid interfering with the ongoing law enforcement operation.”
“At the direction of Attorney General Torrez, the New Mexico Department of Justice initiated a search this morning of the Zorro Ranch property previously owned by Jeffrey Epstein, with the New Mexico State Police and Sandoval County Sheriff’s Office providing assistance,” the Monday statement said. “The New Mexico Department of Justice appreciates the cooperation of the current property owners in granting access for the search and extends its thanks to the ranch staff for their professionalism…The New Mexico Department of Justice will continue to keep the public appropriately informed, support the survivors, and follow the facts wherever they lead.”
Don Huffines, a former Texas state senator who is currently running for office as state comptroller, in a February social media post said he bought the property at auction in 2023 and hoped to “remake it as a Christian retreat, reclaiming it for Jesus.”
The NMDOJ has recently launched a digital tipline where members of the public with “credible information” about Zorro Ranch and Epstein’s time in New Mexico. That is available here.
The state’s Epstein “truth commission” held its first public meeting in February, where members said they would coordinate with the NMDOJ. Rep. Andrea Romero (D-Santa Fe) chairs the commission, and its other three members are Rep. Marianna Anaya (D-Albuquerque), former FBI agent Rep. William “Bill” Hall (R-Aztec) and prosecutor Rep. Andrea Reeb (R-Clovis).
The commission has a $2 million budget and has its first report due to the state Legislature in July.
Haaland scores big victory over Bregman in Democratic Party pre-primary convention - Dan Boyd, Albuquerque Journal
Deb Haaland posted a decisive victory over her primary rival Sam Bregman at the Democratic Party of New Mexico’s pre-primary convention, firmly establishing herself as the frontrunner for the party’s nomination in June.
Voting results released Monday by the state party showed Haaland with 73.5% of the votes cast by 997 delegates at the pre-primary convention on Saturday, while Bregman received 26.5% of the votes.
While both candidates qualified for the primary ballot, Haaland, a former congresswoman and U.S. Interior secretary under Joe Biden, said the victory would give her campaign a jolt of momentum as the June 2 primary election approaches.
“This election will decide if New Mexicans can pay their bills each month, see a doctor when they’re sick, have a quality public education, and feel safe in their community,” Haaland said in a statement. “I’m grateful to all the delegates who voted for me, the volunteers that got me to this point, and for the confidence of Democratic delegates to take on Trump and MAGA Republicans.”
Bregman, the Bernalillo County district attorney who has challenged Haaland to debate him on policy issues, said Monday he would not give up despite the defeat.
“The insiders wanted a coronation. That’s how the political establishment likes to do things,” he said in a statement. “But this election isn’t going to work that way. The people of New Mexico, not a room full of party power brokers, will decide who leads this state.”
New Mexico Democrats gathered Saturday in Mescalero for their pre-primary convention, which major political parties are required to hold in even-numbered election years.
But vote results from the convention were not released until Monday because voting was conducted via electronic ballots over a two-day period.
While some incumbent Democrats are running unopposed in this year’s primary election, the showdown to succeed outgoing Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is barred by term limits from seeking a third consecutive term, is not the only contested race.
In the race to replace outgoing Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver, Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark got 46.2% of the delegate vote compared to 35.8% for Doña Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin. A third candidate, former state Veterans Services Secretary Sonya Smith, fell short of qualifying for the ballot after receiving 18% of the votes cast.
In the lieutenant governor race, Toulouse Oliver came in ahead of state Sen. Harold Pope Jr. of Albuquerque, receiving 58.4% of the votes cast by delegates compared to 41.6% for Pope.
Juan Sanchez, the former political director for U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., finished first in the other contested Democratic party, getting 55.8% of the delegate votes in a three-way primary race for state land commissioner. State Rep. Matthew McQueen of Galisteo came in second with 37% of the votes cast, while rancher Jonas Moya fell short of automatically qualifying for the ballot with 7.2% of the votes.
Under state law, statewide candidates and those running for congressional seats must receive at least 20% of the votes cast at pre-primary conventions in order to secure their spot on the primary election ballot. But those who fall short of that figure can still qualify if they submit additional voter signatures next week.
While the conventions have traditionally been a barometer of a candidate’s support level within the party, there have also been several recent examples of candidates who perform poorly at the convention but go on to win the primary election.
That includes Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gary King in 2014, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Ronchetti in 2022. Both went on to lose in the general election.
Meanwhile, Republicans also held their pre-primary convention last weekend in the Ruidoso area, with Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull getting the most votes in a five-way GOP gubernatorial primary race.
Democrats have swept Republicans in statewide races in recent election cycles, and currently hold all state offices. New Mexico’s congressional delegation has also been all-Democrat since 2023.
NM GOP selects two candidates for gubernatorial primary ballot at pre-primary convention - Danielle Prokop, Source New Mexico
New Mexico Republican delegates selected two of five gubernatorial candidates during the party’s pre-primary convention Saturday to appear on the June 2 primary election ballot.
Both state parties held their pre-primary conventions this weekend, with Republicans convening in Ruidoso and Democrats appearing in neighboring Mescalero, to help candidates from major parties secure spots. The selection also determines the ballot order, with candidates picked as pre-primary nominees appearing higher up on the ticket, according to state election guidelines.
Gregg Hull, the 12-year mayor of Rio Rancho, received more than 55% of the 430 delegate votes. Doug Turner, a charter school advocate, public relations professional and gubernatorial candidate from 2010, received 24% of the delegate votes.
“New Mexicans want safer communities, better schools and an economy where families can succeed. That is the leadership I brought to Rio Rancho as mayor and that’s the kind of leadership I will bring as governor of New Mexico,” Hull said in a statement after the vote.
Turner, who also served as campaign manager for former Republican Gov. Gary Johnson, said he was grateful to receive the second-highest amount of votes. Turner launched his campaign Jan. 22.
“As we move into the next phase of this race, I look forward to continuing to earn the trust and support of Republicans across the state while also welcoming independents who share our vision for a stronger New Mexico. Our best days are ahead of us,” Turner said in a statement to Source NM.
New Mexico Republican Chair Amy Barela called the whole group of GOP candidates “outstanding” in a statement following the vote.
“The state of our party is incredibly strong. New Mexico Republicans are more unified than ever before, and we are committed to showing New Mexico voters why Republicans are worthy of their trust this November. It’s time we take our great state back,” she said.
Two of the three remaining candidates chose not to participate in the pre-primary convention debate Friday, but attended events on Saturday.
Losing out on the GOP delegates vote does not mean the other three candidates are off the ballot. Instead, those candidates who failed to secure 20% of the votes will have to submit the required 2,351 petition signatures to appear on the ballot in the primary.
“The convention results have proven to be a kiss of death when voters actually had their say,” Duke Rodriguez, a cannabis mogul and former health cabinet secretary under Johnson, told Source New Mexico after the vote. “Conventions tend to favor candidates the room already knows — the recycled, rinse-and-repeat names.”
Steve Lanier, a former San Juan County Commissioner and freshman state senator, also did not participate in the debate. Lanier and Rodriguez told Source NM in interviews they did not agree with the party’s requirements for attendees to pay $50 to watch the debate and for candidates to make a $2,000 donation to participate. Both told Source NM they have enough signatures to qualify to be on the ballot, regardless.
Under state rules, candidates who fail to secure 20% of the votes must submit the required 2,351 petition signatures to appear on the ballot in the primary.
Fellow candidate James “Jim” Ellison, a former state utility regulator, received seven delegate votes, and did not respond to requests for comment about his campaign’s next steps.
The declarations of candidacy and nominating petitions for candidates who did not secure pre-primary nominations are due 10 days after the date of the convention, according to the Secretary of State’s election proclamation.
Lieutenant governor candidates
Delegates selected David Gallegos, a state senator from Eunice, as the party’s nominee for lieutenant governor, with 66% of the 416 votes. His competitor, A. Blair Dunn, an attorney and former Libertarian attorney general candidate, said he would seek an additional 2,000 signatures to appear on the ballot.
In a call with Source NM, Dunn said he was unsurprised at the outcome and that he clashed with party leadership over the requirements for candidates to pay to participate in the debate.
“It’s not unusual that the Republican conventions go this way, and it’s part of the way I took a stand and said: ‘No, I’m not going to go pay your candidate tax’ for the debate,” he told Source NM.
Ben Luna, a campaign manager for the third lieutenant governor candidate Manuel “Manny” Lardizabal, told Source NM on Sunday the campaign would continue.
Federal candidates
Several candidates hope to take on the incumbent Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. For the 1st Congressional District, represented by Melanie Stansbury, Republican delegates selected Ndidiamaka “Didi” Okpareke, a pharmacist and first-time candidate, for the party’s nominee over Steve Jones, an accountant and oil and gas executive.
Delegates picked Gregory Cunningham, a Marine, police officer and two-time legislative candidate over Jose Orozco, a former federal drug enforcement officer, in the Republican’s 2nd Congressional District challenge to U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez.
Martin Zamora, a four-time state representative from Clovis, is the sole candidate in the 3rd Congressional District race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Teresa Ledger Fernández.
Delegates also confirmed several candidates running unopposed in the convention: Ramona Goolsby for secretary of state; Samuel Kane for attorney general and Michael Perry for the commissioner of public lands.