Amid a prolonged megadrought, the Bureau of Reclamation is predicting that Lake Powell, one of the Colorado River’s most crucial reservoirs, may drop to a “dead pool,” preventing the production of hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam.
But, water managers won’t let that happen. They’ll first tap into reservoirs further upstream – including in New Mexico.
Usually, a dam hits a dead pool when the water level sinks just below the pipes and tunnel infrastructure used to retain and release water – so the water just sits there, unable to flow downstream.
For the Glen Canyon Dam at Lake Powell, Reclamation is projecting that water levels will sink well below the 3,500-foot dead pool elevation threshold next year.
While that means less water, it also means the dam’s electricity production will come to a standstill. Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska use this hydroelectric power.
Though, to keep the generators going, Colorado River managers will tap into upstream reserves elsewhere.
That includes Navajo Lake near Farmington, which primarily stores water from the San Juan River for local irrigation and other uses.
But, water policy researchers are skeptical of Reclamation’s prediction.
“Lake Powell is currently at about 30% of full capacity,” said Mark Squillace, water policy researcher and professor of natural resources law at the University of Colorado Law School. “That's obviously quite low, but it's been significantly lower than this in 2021 and we didn't hit dead pool at that time.”
While demands on the Colorado River increase and water resources decrease over time from climate change, Squillace said that, for now, New Mexicans shouldn’t be worried.
“It's not likely that we're going to see dead pool at Lake Powell,” Squillace said.
However, Squillace cautioned that water consumption from agriculture needs to change in a way that avoids having to “retire” farmland – such as incentivizing low-water-use crops and drip irrigation.
New Mexico’s agricultural industry uses about 80% of the state’s fresh water, according to a report from the non-governmental organization Food and Water Watch.
As the primary storage for users of the Colorado River, Lake Powell supplies water for upwards of 40 million people in seven states and Mexico.
Elsewhere, Native American tribes have long fought for equitable Colorado River water rights for agricultural and municipal needs. A proposed bill in Congress would do just that. It has yet to be heard by the House Committee on Natural Resources.
For now, New Mexico’s stretch of the San Juan River will be the home of a newly minted infrastructure project that aims to bring reliable water to the Navajo Nation, Jicarilla Apache Nation, and the city of Gallup.
The Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project is now projected to be completed by December 31, 2029.
