People who want to make an easy buck will wager a bet on just about anything. Now, some hope to profit by placing bets on when the next wildfire will occur and a group of lawmakers is alarmed.
Federal court wins by prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow new gambling options — including parlays on wildfires — even as experts warned they could trigger arson. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., and five Democratic colleagues sent a letter last week to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission calling for a crackdown.
Matthew Hurteau, professor of biology at the University of New Mexico, has contributed to wildfire research. Hurteau thinks people who would place such bets have hit rock bottom.
"That's just absolutely disgusting because of the loss that occurs from that; seems we've sunk to a new low. Whether that wildfire intersects with a community or watershed or whatnot, there's big implications," Hurteau pointed out.
Other lawmakers have raised alarms about traders making millions on prediction platforms by accurately wagering on unannounced U.S.-Iran military strikes and ceasefires. The state of New York filed a lawsuit last Friday against Kalshi, accusing the company of “running an illegal gambling operation.”
Hurteau does not object to people betting on commodities such as gold or the futures market because he noted such bets add liquidity to the economy.
"One person making a bet doesn't change the direction of a company's stock or the price of a commodity. Whereas in the case of betting on wildfires, one person could place a bet and then go light the wildfire, and I think that it should be banned," Hurteau urged.
Humans cause the vast majority of wildfires, and better warning systems allow most to escape, but long-term exposure to fine particulate matter in wildfire smoke contributes to 24,000 premature deaths in the U.S. each year.
More than 100 wildfires were burning across the country last week, including in New Mexico.
