New Mexico’s official monsoon rainfall totals are in – and while many areas saw a busy season, overall moisture was slightly below normal.
The outlook has climatologists worried that southeastern portions of the state may still be experiencing extreme drought as the La Niña weather pattern intensifies this winter.
Here in New Mexico, the North American monsoon season generally runs from mid-June through the end of September. July typically enjoys the highest totals, closely followed by the month of August.
This stretch of time is where forecasters expect the last hurrah of precipitation from Mother Nature before drier weather descends on the Southwest. Though, some places have enjoyed more rain than others.
On the southeastern plains, spots like Eddy and Lea counties have caught the eye of climatologists like Todd Shoemake with Albuquerque’s National Weather Service office.
“They’ve received the least amount of monsoon precipitation,” Shoemake said. “They’re also the ones suffering from the worst drought.”
Shoemake said they had significantly lower rainfall counts when compared to the rest of the state – clocking in just 0.9 inches in August. In that same time period, the northern mountains saw a whopping 3.14 inches of rain.
“A lot of those central to southern areas get the worst brunt of La Niña… Meaning, the worst dry conditions and least amount of wintertime precipitation,” Shoemake said.
Overall, the state saw an average of about 2 inches per month from June to the end of August.
While somewhat lackluster, this season has proven to be significantly better than what the state experienced in the summer of 2023 where rainfall totals were abysmal. 2021 and 2022 were fairly wet.
Climate change is also a factor in how forecasters predict weather too.
Shoemake points to increasing overnight temperatures from urbanization as one of the culprits. This leads to “urban heat islands” of concrete and asphalt retaining large amounts of heat – further impacting local climate patterns and making prediction more difficult.
La Niña is expected to linger anywhere from January to March 2025.
